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May 2008 - Posts

Remember those days back in 1997 when Gordon Brown was hailed as an economic genius (come on, it’s not that long ago)? The principal reason for Brown’s once-heroic status was his grant of independence to the Bank of England and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee, which removed the Chancellor’s ability to meddle with interest rates for political ends. The theory was that this would lead to economic stability, with the needs of the nation coming before the needs of the government.

The Committee was given one golden rule by which to abide: keep inflation to within a percentage point of 2%, or else. (The 'else' is that they have to write a letter to explain their naughtiness to the Chancellor. There have been harsher punishments for failure handed out to five-year-olds in primary schools.) Now I’m no big fan of inflation. And I’m old enough to remember that rates of 16% in 1974, 24% in 1975 and 16% in 1976 had quite a miserable effect on my 40p-a-week pocket money. Inflation is bad news. But is it really the single Public Enemy Number 1 at the moment? Can’t the MPC be cut a bit of slack?


"It's entirely possible that in trying to cure the illness of inflation, the MPC could end up making us quite a lot sicker in the short term..."


Because now we face the prospect of a bout of stagflation – stagnation and inflation combined - which makes everyone feel very rotten indeed. It’s entirely possible that in trying to cure the illness of inflation, the MPC could end up making us quite a lot sicker in the short term.

Peter Spencer, chief economist of Ernst & Young ITEM Club, is not alone in demanding that the Government should consider re-writing the Monetary Policy Committee's remit – or leave the UK to face a deep and nasty economic slump. Spencer says there’s diddly squat that the MPC can do to control the more ‘volatile’ elements such as global food and fuel prices, and reckons that the Treasury has assigned it the wrong target. ‘The consumer will have to be crucified in order to meet the inflation target as it stands at the moment,’ he says gloomily, suggesting that the Bank should instead target ‘core inflation’ – which excludes volatile items such as food and energy prices. He said it should aim to keep this measure (currently 1.4%) close to 1.5%.

Former MPC policymaker Willem Buiter (who’s always good for a laugh) told the Telegraph that such a measure ‘would be absolutely idiotic, stupid and counterproductive. Core inflation is only good for people who don't eat, don't drink, use cars or heat or air-condition their houses. Even if they tried to rethink the Bank's mandate they couldn't avoid the fact that the UK economy needs to adjust painfully after a period of excess.’

But the question has to be: can’t anything else be done to remedy the excess without such a dire purgative that we spend the next couple of years doubled up with stomach cramps? Any new wizard wheezes, Gordon? Maybe not. What a sorry fall he’s undergone, following his Faustian pact. Would you rather be Mr Smartypants but Number Two? Or Number One and the derided dunce in the corner? That is the nature of Gordon’s tragedy...

I’ve had it with supermarket shopping. On one (rare) trip to our local  Sainsbury’s, in addition to the usual gruesome mix of jousting for a car park space, watching tetchy parents disciplining their wailing kids and not being able to find the correct aisle for balsamic vinegar, some poor cyclist was lying on the floor next to organic veg –helmet in hand – having a seizure. Hardly anybody took any notice.

How anyone can derive any pleasure from carting a trolley around the aisles is a complete mystery to me (and I always choose the wrong queue to check-out – the one where the till jockey is on a go-slow or one of the punters in front doesn’t have enough cash.)  Personally, I’d rather go for some root canal work.

There is, of course, an answer: get it delivered straight to your door. Preserve your sanity and save the planet simultaneously. We were early Ocado adopters and suddenly groceries are almost a pleasure again. No dreary in-store announcements (‘Cleaner to aisle three, please, cleaner to aisle three’). No getting gouged in the Achilles by a speed freak piloting his trolley through dairy and cheese. Ocado drivers glide towards the house at a serene 26 mph, and when they arrive with all those heavy bags the delivery staff are the most polite I’ve ever come across.  They have even been known to refuse a tip.

So a recent trip up to the Ocado warehouse in Hatfield was something I was actually looking forward to.  It’s a complex monster of an operation and no wonder it’s taken all this time to reach what they say is profitability: the whole back-end is effectively bespoke because no consultant could come up with what the ruling trio – all ex-Goldman Sachs tough guys – were after. What I found even more interesting was their desire to pick a fight with Tesco – they’re convinced they are getting right up Sir Terry’s nose.

Still, with petrol prices going stratospheric, green concerns mounting and online retail becoming more and more accepted, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that internet grocery shopping is the future.

You can read all about the Ocado Boys in next month’s print edition of MT.

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