Syria is edgy, isolated and overwhelmed by refugees, says Nick Hood.

Crossing the Jordanian border into Syria’s fertile plains takes the visitor from Western influence and relative affluence into a tense world of political autocracy; a country resolutely rejecting US threats and facing east towards its preferred international partners, Russia and China.  

Cars are old and battered, lorries and buses are reminiscent of rural India and Sri Lanka - although one rusty bus reached out tentatively to the English-speaking world with 'Good Gorney' painted in elegant italics down its side.

Like so many countries in the Holy Land, Syria’s current economic position is inextricably caught up with regional events.  Its implacable rejection of the state of Israel makes it an international pariah, still on the US list of sponsors of terrorism and hence a subject to a slew of US sanctions.  Despite a surplus of citrus fruits of a quality to rival any other Mediterranean producer, it is locked out of European markets.

But much worse is the impact of refugees. Arriving in Damascus in the chaos of rush hour, it is hard not to wonder how a city which relatively recently had a population of only 300,000 will ever cope with the 4m refugees mainly from Iraq and Palestine that now threaten to throttle it. Further north, the second city of Aleppo is somewhat more functional, but it too is swamped with refugees, this time 500,000 Kurds expelled from Turkey. Unsurprisingly, unemployment is estimated to be as high as 40%.

The good news is that the Syrian economy, because of its isolation, escaped the global recession in 2009. GDP growth was a respectable 4% for the year according to the IMF, led by a surging agricultural sector which now accounts for 25% of total output. This is a decline from a figure of 5.2% in 2008, but still a creditable performance, which would have been better still but for a 2.7% reduction in homebound remittances from the large Syrian diaspora, inevitably affected by the economic crisis around the world.

Two key relationships continue to support progress. Firstly, the generosity of the then President Putin in writing off Syria’s sovereign debt to Russia back in 2003 (possibly simply to spite the US but more probably to cement his influence over the young President Bashar al-Assad) has transformed the overall financial position.

More importantly, Syria benefits from substantial religious tourism from Iran. The wondrous Ummayad Mosque in Damascus is overwhelmed each and every day by tens of thousands of pilgrims from Iran, fulfilling their obligation to visit Islam’s holy sites.  These visitors also throng the rather disappointing souks, buying up the wealth of tatty imported goods spilling out from boxes clearly stamped “Made in China”.

Western tourism is also growing, attracted by a wealth of stunning ancient monuments from the amazing crusader castle, the Crac des Chevaliers, Aleppo’s Citadel and the world-renowned remains of the Greco-Roman city at Palmyra which make Rome’s Forum look like Toy Town.  

Business visitors may balk at a country where the lack of a GPRS system makes their Blackberries useless and where internet coverage is still patchy at best. Even cash can be hard to get, as most ATMs are empty outside banking hours.  But the hotels are good and whilst nobody should come for a gourmet experience, decent wines from Lebanon, Jordan & even Syria itself can help smooth away the slightly edgy environment.

What does the future hold for Syria?  Uncertainty for sure, as conservative influences seek to rein in President Assad’s modernising instincts - plus a long wait for acceptance by the US and other Western interests. But as a significant oil and citrus producer, any breakthrough in access to international markets could transform this isolated nation.